This fictional scenario considers adoption of a next-generation state-compression standard across consumer applications.
Current Yes probability
62%
+2.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 81% |
| Jul 5 | 77% |
| Jul 6 | 74% |
| Jul 7 | 74% |
| Jul 8 | 77% |
| Jul 9 | 76% |
| Jul 10 | 72% |
| Jul 11 | 70% |
| Jul 12 | 71% |
| Jul 13 | 72% |
| Jul 14 | 70% |
| Jul 15 | 67% |
| Jul 16 | 67% |
| Jul 17 | 68% |
| Jul 18 | 68% |
| Jul 19 | 65% |
| Jul 20 | 63% |
| Jul 21 | 63% |
| Jul 22 | 64% |
| Jul 23 | 62% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if a designated public index reports at least 20 million qualifying monthly operations before the deadline.
Evidence source
Simulated protocol analytics index
Adjacent signals
Protocols
Protocols
Protocols