Resolution criteria
What determines the outcome
Resolves Yes if the final public exhibitor list contains at least 51 distinct independent creators.
Practice1,000 crMerit0 MP
Rewards protocolThe next progression layer is taking shapeComing soon →
A hypothetical creator-event scenario emphasizing independently curated work and public participation.
Current Yes probability
68%
+2.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 87% |
| Jul 5 | 86% |
| Jul 6 | 82% |
| Jul 7 | 80% |
| Jul 8 | 82% |
| Jul 9 | 83% |
| Jul 10 | 80% |
| Jul 11 | 77% |
| Jul 12 | 76% |
| Jul 13 | 78% |
| Jul 14 | 78% |
| Jul 15 | 75% |
| Jul 16 | 73% |
| Jul 17 | 73% |
| Jul 18 | 74% |
| Jul 19 | 73% |
| Jul 20 | 70% |
| Jul 21 | 69% |
| Jul 22 | 69% |
| Jul 23 | 68% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if the final public exhibitor list contains at least 51 distinct independent creators.
Evidence source
Hypothetical art-fair exhibitor list
Adjacent signals