A broad technology milestone based on independently tested continuous mixed-use battery life.
Current Yes probability
43%
+2.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 22% |
| Jul 5 | 26% |
| Jul 6 | 25% |
| Jul 7 | 23% |
| Jul 8 | 25% |
| Jul 9 | 29% |
| Jul 10 | 31% |
| Jul 11 | 29% |
| Jul 12 | 29% |
| Jul 13 | 31% |
| Jul 14 | 35% |
| Jul 15 | 35% |
| Jul 16 | 34% |
| Jul 17 | 35% |
| Jul 18 | 38% |
| Jul 19 | 40% |
| Jul 20 | 40% |
| Jul 21 | 40% |
| Jul 22 | 41% |
| Jul 23 | 43% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if a commercially available consumer model reaches eight hours in a designated independent mixed-use test.
Evidence source
Hypothetical independent hardware benchmark
Adjacent signals