A long-horizon technology scenario requiring sustained net-positive output at pilot scale.
Current Yes probability
28%
−1.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 52% |
| Jul 5 | 47% |
| Jul 6 | 47% |
| Jul 7 | 49% |
| Jul 8 | 48% |
| Jul 9 | 45% |
| Jul 10 | 42% |
| Jul 11 | 42% |
| Jul 12 | 43% |
| Jul 13 | 41% |
| Jul 14 | 38% |
| Jul 15 | 36% |
| Jul 16 | 37% |
| Jul 17 | 37% |
| Jul 18 | 34% |
| Jul 19 | 32% |
| Jul 20 | 31% |
| Jul 21 | 31% |
| Jul 22 | 30% |
| Jul 23 | 28% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if a recognized independent review verifies net-positive energy output sustained for at least ten continuous minutes.
Evidence source
Hypothetical independent energy review
Adjacent signals