Resolution criteria
What determines the outcome
Resolved Yes because the simulated quarter-end index level exceeded its simulated April opening level.
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A resolved fictional index market included to demonstrate historical token-category outcomes.
Current Yes probability
100%
+0.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 76% |
| Jul 5 | 80% |
| Jul 6 | 80% |
| Jul 7 | 78% |
| Jul 8 | 79% |
| Jul 9 | 83% |
| Jul 10 | 86% |
| Jul 11 | 85% |
| Jul 12 | 84% |
| Jul 13 | 87% |
| Jul 14 | 90% |
| Jul 15 | 91% |
| Jul 16 | 90% |
| Jul 17 | 91% |
| Jul 18 | 94% |
| Jul 19 | 96% |
| Jul 20 | 97% |
| Jul 21 | 96% |
| Jul 22 | 98% |
| Jul 23 | 100% |
Resolution criteria
Resolved Yes because the simulated quarter-end index level exceeded its simulated April opening level.
Evidence source
Equinox simulated creator-token index
Adjacent signals