Resolution criteria
What determines the outcome
Resolves Yes if the designated simulated daily index records a UTC close above 250 before the deadline.
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A prototype-only threshold market using a fictional reference index. It is not financial guidance or a representation of a live price forecast.
Current Yes probability
52%
−3.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 33% |
| Jul 5 | 31% |
| Jul 6 | 31% |
| Jul 7 | 34% |
| Jul 8 | 38% |
| Jul 9 | 37% |
| Jul 10 | 36% |
| Jul 11 | 37% |
| Jul 12 | 41% |
| Jul 13 | 43% |
| Jul 14 | 42% |
| Jul 15 | 41% |
| Jul 16 | 44% |
| Jul 17 | 47% |
| Jul 18 | 48% |
| Jul 19 | 47% |
| Jul 20 | 47% |
| Jul 21 | 50% |
| Jul 22 | 52% |
| Jul 23 | 52% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if the designated simulated daily index records a UTC close above 250 before the deadline.
Evidence source
Equinox simulated reference index
Adjacent signals