Resolution criteria
What determines the outcome
Resolves Yes if ten distinct public networks document and maintain production support for the same open message standard.

A hypothetical interoperability milestone based on independently verifiable production integrations.
Current Yes probability
69%
+2.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 51% |
| Jul 5 | 51% |
| Jul 6 | 55% |
| Jul 7 | 58% |
| Jul 8 | 57% |
| Jul 9 | 55% |
| Jul 10 | 57% |
| Jul 11 | 60% |
| Jul 12 | 62% |
| Jul 13 | 60% |
| Jul 14 | 60% |
| Jul 15 | 62% |
| Jul 16 | 65% |
| Jul 17 | 65% |
| Jul 18 | 64% |
| Jul 19 | 64% |
| Jul 20 | 67% |
| Jul 21 | 69% |
| Jul 22 | 68% |
| Jul 23 | 69% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if ten distinct public networks document and maintain production support for the same open message standard.
Evidence source
Hypothetical interoperability registry
Adjacent signals