An invented multilateral-policy scenario used for category breadth; no real diplomatic position is attributed.
Current Yes probability
48%
+3.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 34% |
| Jul 5 | 38% |
| Jul 6 | 38% |
| Jul 7 | 36% |
| Jul 8 | 35% |
| Jul 9 | 39% |
| Jul 10 | 41% |
| Jul 11 | 40% |
| Jul 12 | 39% |
| Jul 13 | 40% |
| Jul 14 | 43% |
| Jul 15 | 44% |
| Jul 16 | 43% |
| Jul 17 | 42% |
| Jul 18 | 44% |
| Jul 19 | 46% |
| Jul 20 | 47% |
| Jul 21 | 46% |
| Jul 22 | 46% |
| Jul 23 | 48% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if the fictional treaty depositary records at least 75 completed ratifications by the deadline.
Evidence source
Hypothetical treaty depositary
Adjacent signals