A general policy-adoption scenario requiring implemented freight restrictions, not announcements alone.
Current Yes probability
63%
+2.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 72% |
| Jul 5 | 74% |
| Jul 6 | 76% |
| Jul 7 | 75% |
| Jul 8 | 71% |
| Jul 9 | 70% |
| Jul 10 | 72% |
| Jul 11 | 73% |
| Jul 12 | 71% |
| Jul 13 | 68% |
| Jul 14 | 67% |
| Jul 15 | 69% |
| Jul 16 | 69% |
| Jul 17 | 67% |
| Jul 18 | 65% |
| Jul 19 | 65% |
| Jul 20 | 66% |
| Jul 21 | 65% |
| Jul 22 | 63% |
| Jul 23 | 63% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if three cities with populations above one million begin enforcing qualifying zones after market creation.
Evidence source
Hypothetical municipal policy index
Adjacent signals