Resolution criteria
What determines the outcome
Resolved Yes after all four fictional signatories published the same executed accord.
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The Aruna Basin and its states are fictional. This resolved scenario demonstrates a diplomatic outcome without referencing a real negotiation.
Current Yes probability
100%
+0.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 88% |
| Jul 5 | 89% |
| Jul 6 | 86% |
| Jul 7 | 86% |
| Jul 8 | 89% |
| Jul 9 | 92% |
| Jul 10 | 91% |
| Jul 11 | 89% |
| Jul 12 | 91% |
| Jul 13 | 94% |
| Jul 14 | 95% |
| Jul 15 | 94% |
| Jul 16 | 93% |
| Jul 17 | 95% |
| Jul 18 | 98% |
| Jul 19 | 98% |
| Jul 20 | 97% |
| Jul 21 | 97% |
| Jul 22 | 99% |
| Jul 23 | 100% |
Resolution criteria
Resolved Yes after all four fictional signatories published the same executed accord.
Evidence source
Equinox simulated treaty archive
Adjacent signals