Resolution criteria
What determines the outcome
Resolves Yes if an audited monthly report records at least 100,000 distinct completed purchases.
Practice1,000 crMerit0 MP
Rewards protocolThe next progression layer is taking shapeComing soon →
A simulated merchant-adoption milestone for an invented payment network.
Current Yes probability
39%
+7.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 27% |
| Jul 5 | 28% |
| Jul 6 | 31% |
| Jul 7 | 33% |
| Jul 8 | 31% |
| Jul 9 | 29% |
| Jul 10 | 31% |
| Jul 11 | 34% |
| Jul 12 | 35% |
| Jul 13 | 33% |
| Jul 14 | 33% |
| Jul 15 | 35% |
| Jul 16 | 37% |
| Jul 17 | 36% |
| Jul 18 | 35% |
| Jul 19 | 36% |
| Jul 20 | 38% |
| Jul 21 | 39% |
| Jul 22 | 38% |
| Jul 23 | 39% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if an audited monthly report records at least 100,000 distinct completed purchases.
Evidence source
Hypothetical network transparency report
Adjacent signals
Ecosystem
Ecosystem
Ecosystem