Resolution criteria
What determines the outcome
Resolves Yes if a designated independent monitor reports daily median finality below 10 seconds on each of 30 consecutive UTC days.

A simulated reliability milestone measuring consistent finality across an extended observation window.
Current Yes probability
73%
+1.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 57% |
| Jul 5 | 61% |
| Jul 6 | 63% |
| Jul 7 | 61% |
| Jul 8 | 60% |
| Jul 9 | 62% |
| Jul 10 | 65% |
| Jul 11 | 66% |
| Jul 12 | 64% |
| Jul 13 | 64% |
| Jul 14 | 66% |
| Jul 15 | 69% |
| Jul 16 | 68% |
| Jul 17 | 67% |
| Jul 18 | 68% |
| Jul 19 | 71% |
| Jul 20 | 72% |
| Jul 21 | 71% |
| Jul 22 | 71% |
| Jul 23 | 73% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if a designated independent monitor reports daily median finality below 10 seconds on each of 30 consecutive UTC days.
Evidence source
Simulated network health monitor
Adjacent signals