This simulated market tracks whether client diversity reaches a material network-security milestone. It is a hypothetical forecasting prompt, not a statement from any validator team.
Current Yes probability
67%
+3.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 59% |
| Jul 5 | 58% |
| Jul 6 | 55% |
| Jul 7 | 56% |
| Jul 8 | 59% |
| Jul 9 | 61% |
| Jul 10 | 59% |
| Jul 11 | 58% |
| Jul 12 | 60% |
| Jul 13 | 63% |
| Jul 14 | 63% |
| Jul 15 | 62% |
| Jul 16 | 61% |
| Jul 17 | 64% |
| Jul 18 | 66% |
| Jul 19 | 65% |
| Jul 20 | 64% |
| Jul 21 | 65% |
| Jul 22 | 67% |
| Jul 23 | 67% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if a public stake-distribution dashboard shows non-dominant validator clients collectively above 35% for seven consecutive days before the deadline.
Evidence source
Simulated network telemetry scenario
Adjacent signals