This hypothetical asks whether a substantial fee-allocation redesign reaches mainnet activation. It does not imply that any named upgrade has been announced.
Current Yes probability
44%
+5.0 pts24h
| Date | Yes probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 4 | 55% |
| Jul 5 | 54% |
| Jul 6 | 57% |
| Jul 7 | 57% |
| Jul 8 | 54% |
| Jul 9 | 51% |
| Jul 10 | 52% |
| Jul 11 | 54% |
| Jul 12 | 53% |
| Jul 13 | 50% |
| Jul 14 | 48% |
| Jul 15 | 50% |
| Jul 16 | 50% |
| Jul 17 | 49% |
| Jul 18 | 46% |
| Jul 19 | 46% |
| Jul 20 | 47% |
| Jul 21 | 47% |
| Jul 22 | 45% |
| Jul 23 | 44% |
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if the relevant feature is enabled for general mainnet use and documented in public release notes before the deadline.
Evidence source
Hypothetical Solana release notes
Adjacent signals